Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI before Jan 1, 2026?
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
Arbitrage Profit
31.58%
Match Score
0.8654
Similarity
0.9329
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI before Jan 1, 2026?
End Date: Jan 01, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.410
NO Price:
$0.670
Polymarket Event
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
End Date: Jun 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.090
NO Price:
$0.940
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0900, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.6700
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.9329
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.705
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.4932
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxaltmanequity
Kalshi Milestone ID:
26
Polymarket Event Slug:
will-sam-altman-get-equity-stake-in-openai-by-june-30
Polymarket Event ID:
517128