Will NASA's estimate of the asteroid hitting Earth be above 4% before June? – At least 4%
Will NASA estimate a 4% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
Arbitrage Profit
0.10%
Match Score
0.9050
Similarity
0.8795
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will NASA's estimate of the asteroid hitting Earth be above 4% before June? – At least 4%
End Date: Jun 01, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.010
NO Price:
$1.000
Polymarket Event
Will NASA estimate a 4% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
End Date: Jun 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.015
NO Price:
$0.989
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0100, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9890
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8795
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.997
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9205
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxasteroid
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
will-nasa-estimate-a-4-chance-of-asteroid-hitting-earth
Polymarket Event ID:
523991