Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration first?
Arbitrage Profit
1.01%
Match Score
0.8898
Similarity
0.9246

Market Details

Kalshi Market

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first person to leave the Trump Cabinet?
End Date: Jan 20, 2029 at 03:00 PM
YES Price: $0.030
NO Price: $0.980
View on Kalshi

Polymarket Event

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration first?
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price: $0.010
NO Price: $0.997
View on Polymarket

Arbitrage Strategy

Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0100, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.9800

Match Analysis

Embedding Similarity
0.9246
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9815
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.0
How similar the end dates are

Flags & Notes

date_far

Event Identifiers

Kalshi Event Slug: kxcabout
Kalshi Milestone ID: 29
Polymarket Event Slug: who-will-leave-trump-administration-first
Polymarket Event ID: 535732