Will the Conservative party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Arbitrage Profit
14.42%
Match Score
0.8606
Similarity
0.8504
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the Conservative party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
End Date: Oct 20, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.150
NO Price:
$0.860
Polymarket Event
Will the Conservatives win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?
End Date: Oct 20, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.014
NO Price:
$0.996
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0140, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.8600
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8504
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.864
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxcanadaparty
Kalshi Milestone ID:
c
Polymarket Event Slug:
seats-conservatives-win-in-canadian-election
Polymarket Event ID:
528710