Will the Conservative party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
Arbitrage Profit
9.65%
Match Score
0.8632
Similarity
0.8751
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the Conservative party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
End Date: Oct 20, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.150
NO Price:
$0.860
Polymarket Event
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
End Date: Apr 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.052
NO Price:
$0.954
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0520, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.8600
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8751
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.904
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.5205
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxcanadaparty
Kalshi Milestone ID:
c
Polymarket Event Slug:
which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario
Polymarket Event ID:
530831