Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
Arbitrage Profit
9.65%
Match Score
0.8608
Similarity
0.8718
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the Liberal party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
End Date: Oct 20, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.860
NO Price:
$0.150
Polymarket Event
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election?
End Date: Apr 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.953
NO Price:
$0.052
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.8600, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.0520
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8718
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9045
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.5205
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxcanadaparty
Kalshi Milestone ID:
l
Polymarket Event Slug:
which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario
Polymarket Event ID:
530832