Will the New Democratic party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
Will the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?
Arbitrage Profit
5.26%
Match Score
0.8534
Similarity
0.8538
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the New Democratic party win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian House of Commons election?
End Date: Oct 20, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.010
NO Price:
$1.000
Polymarket Event
Will the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?
End Date: Apr 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.090
NO Price:
$0.940
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0100, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9400
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8538
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.935
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.5205
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxcanadaparty
Kalshi Milestone ID:
nd
Polymarket Event Slug:
of-seats-ndp-win-in-canadian-election-lower-brackets
Polymarket Event ID:
536584