Will DeepSeek release V4 before May 2025?

DeepSeek R2 released before May?
Arbitrage Profit
3.09%
Match Score
0.8720
Similarity
0.8522

Market Details

Kalshi Market

Will DeepSeek release V4 before May 2025?
End Date: May 01, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price: $0.080
NO Price: $0.990
View on Kalshi

Polymarket Event

DeepSeek R2 released before May?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price: $0.150
NO Price: $0.890
View on Polymarket

Arbitrage Strategy

Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0800, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.8900

Match Analysis

Embedding Similarity
0.8522
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.915
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9973
How similar the end dates are

Event Identifiers

Kalshi Event Slug: kxdeepseekv4release
Kalshi Milestone ID: 25
Polymarket Event Slug: deepseek-r2-released-before-may
Polymarket Event ID: 520266