Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2025?? – Defaults
US defaults on debt in 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
N/A
Match Score
0.8734
Similarity
0.8774
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2025?? – Defaults
End Date: Jan 01, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.060
NO Price:
$0.950
Polymarket Event
US defaults on debt in 2025?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.060
NO Price:
$0.960
Arbitrage Strategy
No arbitrage opportunity available at current prices.
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8774
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.995
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.326
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxdefault
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25dec31
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-defaults-on-debt-in-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
535293