Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2025?
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
0.10%
Match Score
0.9125
Similarity
0.8908
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2025?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.090
NO Price:
$0.950
Polymarket Event
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.105
NO Price:
$0.909
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0900, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9090
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8908
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.972
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxgdp
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25apr30
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
526831