Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2025?
Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
N/A
Match Score
0.8622
Similarity
0.8831
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2025?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.090
NO Price:
$0.950
Polymarket Event
Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.072
NO Price:
$0.933
Arbitrage Strategy
No arbitrage opportunity available at current prices.
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8831
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9995
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.050
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxgdp
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25apr30
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
526836