Will Trump become President and impose large tariffs in his first year? – In 2025
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
Arbitrage Profit
1.01%
Match Score
0.8660
Similarity
0.8654
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Trump become President and impose large tariffs in his first year? – In 2025
End Date: Mar 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.800
NO Price:
$0.210
Polymarket Event
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
End Date: Aug 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.820
NO Price:
$0.190
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.8000, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.1900
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8654
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.98
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.4192
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxlargetariff
Kalshi Milestone ID:
Polymarket Event Slug:
will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first-6-months
Polymarket Event ID:
513304