Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump Administration this year? – :: Secretary of Defense
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
Arbitrage Profit
14.94%
Match Score
0.8522
Similarity
0.8741
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump Administration this year? – :: Secretary of Defense
End Date: Jan 01, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.460
NO Price:
$0.550
Polymarket Event
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
End Date: Jun 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.320
NO Price:
$0.690
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.3200, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.5500
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8741
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.86
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.4932
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxleaveadmin
Kalshi Milestone ID:
26
Polymarket Event Slug:
pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-before-july
Polymarket Event ID:
530875