Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump Administration this year? – :: Secretary of Defense
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first?
Arbitrage Profit
28.21%
Match Score
0.8539
Similarity
0.8668
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump Administration this year? – :: Secretary of Defense
End Date: Jan 01, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.460
NO Price:
$0.550
Polymarket Event
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first?
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.230
NO Price:
$0.780
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.2300, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.5500
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8668
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.77
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9973
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxleaveadmin
Kalshi Milestone ID:
26
Polymarket Event Slug:
who-will-leave-trump-administration-first
Polymarket Event ID:
535731