When will the next U.S. recession start? – Q1 2025
US recession in 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
31.58%
Match Score
0.8592
Similarity
0.8964
Market Details
Kalshi Market
When will the next U.S. recession start? – Q1 2025
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.290
NO Price:
$0.760
Polymarket Event
US recession in 2025?
End Date: Feb 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.550
NO Price:
$0.470
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.2900, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.4700
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8964
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.725
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.8384
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxnberrecessq
Kalshi Milestone ID:
q1
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-recession-in-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
516710