Will Trump pardon 2500 people before May 1, 2025? – More than 2500
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
Arbitrage Profit
N/A
Match Score
0.8579
Similarity
0.8864
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Trump pardon 2500 people before May 1, 2025? – More than 2500
End Date: May 01, 2025 at 11:07 PM
YES Price:
$0.030
NO Price:
$1.000
Polymarket Event
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
End Date: Apr 29, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.019
NO Price:
$0.985
Arbitrage Strategy
No arbitrage opportunity available at current prices.
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8864
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.967
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9945
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.050
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxpardonstrump
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
how-many-jan-6th-protestors-will-trump-pardon-in-his-first-100-days
Polymarket Event ID:
517636