Will Trump pardon 5000 people before May 1, 2025? – More than 5000
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
Arbitrage Profit
2.15%
Match Score
0.8756
Similarity
0.8827
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Trump pardon 5000 people before May 1, 2025? – More than 5000
End Date: May 01, 2025 at 11:07 PM
YES Price:
$0.010
NO Price:
$1.000
Polymarket Event
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
End Date: Apr 29, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.057
NO Price:
$0.969
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0100, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9690
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8827
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.944
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9945
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.025
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxpardonstrump
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
how-many-jan-6th-protestors-will-trump-pardon-in-his-first-100-days
Polymarket Event ID:
517641