Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Arbitrage Profit
2.04%
Match Score
0.8881
Similarity
0.8614
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
End Date: May 18, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.780
NO Price:
$0.250
Polymarket Event
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
End Date: May 18, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.730
NO Price:
$0.280
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.7300, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.2500
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8614
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.96
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxprespoland
Kalshi Milestone ID:
rt
Polymarket Event Slug:
poland-presidential-election
Polymarket Event ID:
514139