Will Nicusor Dan win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
Arbitrage Profit
16.28%
Match Score
0.8530
Similarity
0.8909
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Nicusor Dan win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Dec 08, 2024 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.310
NO Price:
$0.730
Polymarket Event
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Jul 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.130
NO Price:
$0.880
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.1300, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.7300
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8909
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.835
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.3562
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxpresromania24
Kalshi Milestone ID:
nd
Polymarket Event Slug:
romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner
Polymarket Event ID:
515357