Will VIctor Ponta win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?

Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
Arbitrage Profit
4.17%
Match Score
0.8747
Similarity
0.89

Market Details

Kalshi Market

Will VIctor Ponta win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Dec 08, 2024 at 03:00 PM
YES Price: $0.080
NO Price: $0.940
View on Kalshi

Polymarket Event

Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Jul 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price: $0.020
NO Price: $0.986
View on Polymarket

Arbitrage Strategy

Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0200, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.9400

Match Analysis

Embedding Similarity
0.89
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.947
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.3562
How similar the end dates are

Event Identifiers

Kalshi Event Slug: kxpresromania24
Kalshi Milestone ID: vp
Polymarket Event Slug: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner
Polymarket Event ID: 515360