Will Nicusor Dan win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
Arbitrage Profit
2.04%
Match Score
0.8757
Similarity
0.8745
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will Nicusor Dan win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Dec 08, 2024 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.310
NO Price:
$0.730
Polymarket Event
Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
End Date: May 04, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.350
NO Price:
$0.670
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.3100, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.6700
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8745
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.95
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.5973
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxpresromania24
Kalshi Milestone ID:
nd
Polymarket Event Slug:
romania-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
Polymarket Event ID:
539274