Will VIctor Ponta win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
Arbitrage Profit
2.04%
Match Score
0.8808
Similarity
0.8772
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will VIctor Ponta win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
End Date: Dec 08, 2024 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.080
NO Price:
$0.940
Polymarket Event
Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
End Date: May 04, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.110
NO Price:
$0.900
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0800, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9000
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8772
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.965
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.5973
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxpresromania24
Kalshi Milestone ID:
vp
Polymarket Event Slug:
romania-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
Polymarket Event ID:
539276