Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by January 09, 2025? – Before June 2025
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30?
Arbitrage Profit
16.28%
Match Score
0.8619
Similarity
0.8874
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by January 09, 2025? – Before June 2025
End Date: Jan 10, 2025 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.180
NO Price:
$0.860
Polymarket Event
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30?
End Date: May 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.350
NO Price:
$0.680
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.1800, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.6800
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8874
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.825
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.6274
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxrecnc
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
reconciliation-bill-passed-by
Polymarket Event ID:
537690