Government shutdown in 2025?

US government shutdown in 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
2.04%
Match Score
0.9815
Similarity
0.9833

Market Details

Kalshi Market

Government shutdown in 2025?
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 03:00 PM
YES Price: $0.370
NO Price: $0.640
View on Kalshi

Polymarket Event

US government shutdown in 2025?
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price: $0.340
NO Price: $0.670
View on Polymarket

Arbitrage Strategy

Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.3400, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.6400

Match Analysis

Embedding Similarity
0.9833
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.97
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are

Event Identifiers

Kalshi Event Slug: kxshutdownby
Kalshi Milestone ID: 25
Polymarket Event Slug: us-government-shutdown-in-2025
Polymarket Event ID: 518036