Will below 3 or below Starship launches reach space in 2025?
Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
N/A
Match Score
0.8767
Similarity
0.8703
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will below 3 or below Starship launches reach space in 2025?
End Date: Jan 01, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.040
NO Price:
$0.990
Polymarket Event
Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
End Date: Dec 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.032
NO Price:
$0.973
Arbitrage Strategy
No arbitrage opportunity available at current prices.
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8703
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9955
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9973
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.025
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxstarshipspace
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
517035