What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 20% to 49.99%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30?
Arbitrage Profit
4.06%
Match Score
0.8645
Similarity
0.8998
Market Details
Kalshi Market
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 20% to 49.99%
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.080
NO Price:
$0.940
Polymarket Event
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.021
NO Price:
$0.984
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.0210, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.9400
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.8998
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9485
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.050
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxtariffrateprc
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25apr30
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30
Polymarket Event ID:
535697