What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 100% to 149.99%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?
Arbitrage Profit
1.01%
Match Score
0.9303
Similarity
0.9138
Market Details
Kalshi Market
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 100% to 149.99%
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.790
NO Price:
$0.230
Polymarket Event
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.810
NO Price:
$0.200
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.7900, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.2000
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.9138
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.975
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxtariffrateprc
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25apr30
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30
Polymarket Event ID:
535701