What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 300% or above
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 300% on April 30?
Arbitrage Profit
0.10%
Match Score
0.9136
Similarity
0.9191
Market Details
Kalshi Market
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on Apr 30, 2025? – 300% or above
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 02:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.010
NO Price:
$1.000
Polymarket Event
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 300% on April 30?
End Date: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.016
NO Price:
$0.989
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Kalshi @ $0.0100, Buy NO on Polymarket @ $0.9890
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.9191
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.9965
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
1.0
How similar the end dates are
Flags & Notes
range_penalty=0.025
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
kxtariffrateprc
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25apr30
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30
Polymarket Event ID:
535704