Will there be a recession in 2025? – Starts
US recession in 2025?
Arbitrage Profit
1.01%
Match Score
0.9288
Similarity
0.9182
Market Details
Kalshi Market
Will there be a recession in 2025? – Starts
End Date: Jan 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.580
NO Price:
$0.440
Polymarket Event
US recession in 2025?
End Date: Feb 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM
YES Price:
$0.550
NO Price:
$0.470
Arbitrage Strategy
Buy YES on Polymarket @ $0.5500, Buy NO on Kalshi @ $0.4400
Match Analysis
Embedding Similarity
0.9182
How similar the event titles are
Odds Similarity
0.97
How similar the probability estimates are
Date Similarity
0.9233
How similar the end dates are
Event Identifiers
Kalshi Event Slug:
recssnber
Kalshi Milestone ID:
25
Polymarket Event Slug:
us-recession-in-2025
Polymarket Event ID:
516710